As we come to the end of a long awards season—the Oscars are, miraculously, less than two weeks away, and final voting closes this Thursday—it’s remarkable that the race feels as up-in-the-air as it did many months ago, before the contenders began screening for pundits and voters. The sure-things have now become the maybes; there’s only one performer whose acting trophy is a sure thing.
I take pride in my ability to predict the winners at the Academy Awards. It’s a dubious skill I’ve been honing ever since I won my local video store’s Oscar pool back in high school. But this year’s different. Instead of pride, I feel a nagging sense of uncertainty about most of the big categories.
On the other hand, how exciting! After three years in which the Oscar winners for best picture—2025’s Anora, 2024’s Oppenheimer, and 2023’s Everything Everywhere All at Once—enjoyed frontrunner status from the outset of their respective seasons, we now have a real match between Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another and Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. Sure, the former has won pretty much every best-picture prize possible this season, including the PGA Award on Saturday. But Sunday night’s Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards) threw some more wrenches into the Oscar machine, with the union of performers giving its top prize to the cast of Sinners.
That big win came moments after Michael B. Jordan collected best actor for his double role in Sinners. It was Jordan’s first win of the season, beating frontrunner (and last year’s SAG winner) Timothée Chalamet. Jordan received an exuberant standing ovation from his union peers (not a typical response to an acting win) and a full-throated cheer from presenter Viola Davis. We were treated to a wonderful, intergenerational moment when Davis handed the Actor to Jordan, and it was equally thrilling to see Samuel L. Jackson bow as he presented the best ensemble trophy to his contemporary, Delroy Lindo, who accepted on behalf of the Sinners cast.
And those weren’t the only surprises of the evening. Sean Penn followed his BAFTA win for best supporting actor with an Actor for his role in One Battle After Another, upgrading him from maybe-a-winner to the sudden Oscar frontrunner. Weapons’ Amy Madigan, a first-time winner, scored best supporting actress for her terrifying and campy performance in Zach Cregger’s horror film. Both choices prove that the actors have a penchant for villainous turns (a theory you can extend to Jordan’s win, considering one of his characters becomes a vampire in the film’s third act). Meanwhile, Jessie Buckley, as expected, won best actress for Hamnet.
The wins for Jordan, Penn, and Madigan shake up their respective Oscar categories, although there are plenty of caveats.
Jordan is up against fellow SAG nominees in Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Ethan Hawke. Missing from that lineup was The Secret Agent’s Wagner Moura, who won best actor at Cannes last year and later picked up Golden Globe and New York Film Critics Circle awards. If there’s any wild card in the category, it’s the Brazilian actor, who is a major global star and could court some international votes.
Also not nominated at the Actor Awards was Stellan Skarsgard, who won supporting-actor prizes at the Golden Globes and Los Angeles Film Critics Association (plus best actor at the European Film Awards, which has voter overlap with the Academy). He’s also beloved, and a win would be seen as a career achievement of sorts. Lindo was also passed over by SAG, but his appearance on stage at the end of the night could boost his status for any procrastinators in the Academy who waited until this week to fill out their ballots.
Madigan’s win also sets up a possible three-way race in the supporting-actress category. Sinners’ Wunmi Mosaku (a winner at the Gotham Awards and BAFTAs) and One Battle After Another’s Teyana Taylor (who won a Golden Globe and a Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award) are still major threats in the race, possibly having an edge over Sentimental Value stars Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas.
Another major thing to consider when it comes to Sinners: the top SAG win was for its ensemble, not for the film itself. But it’s certainly good news for casting director Francine Maisler, who joined the cast on stage and is poised to take the inaugural Oscar for best casting. In best picture, however, it’s definitely down to Warner Bros.’ two features, with One Battle After Another having the slight edge. But the rush that came after Sinners winning the Actor Award is undeniable, and might foretell a similar Oscar outcome—one that few would consider a disappointment.
Source: filmmakermagazine.com